Taken from Malaysiakini.com The May 2013 general election was a potential transition election in which the BN governing coalition held onto power. The majority of the Malaysians supported an alternative government, but the incumbent Umno elite, supported by vested interests and years of constructing an electoral system in its favour, won out. Even with yet another multi-ethnic national swing in electoral support towards Pakatan and more Malaysians voting than ever before, the incumbent elite in power held on, thwarting democracy. Earlier, I pointed to some of the specific questions surrounding the electoral roll, the placement of voters, the conduct of the election itself and the character of the results, highlighting many of the unanswered questions of GE13. The process of evidence gathering has begun and in the months ahead many of the irregularities in the polls will be illustrated and investigated. The contest between truth and denial has begun, with the BN banking on Malaysians forgetting, and for those filled with optimism for change this election, to let the disappointment turn into disengagement. It is important to step out of the details of the election to identify some of the broader factors explaining the results. The process of understanding is...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com The dust is beginning to settle one week after the dirtiest election in the country’s history. Some of the dirt will stick, while others will hopefully wash away as the memory of the election fades. My earlier pieces have focussed on the questions about the electoral process and impact of an Umno ‘victory’. Here I turn to the effects of the election on the expansion of democracy in Malaysia. The message is one of strength, not weakness, or hope, rather than despair. A strengthened opposition As the results came in on polling day, despite the irregularities, a new political landscape has been created. Foremost, is that Pakatan is a viable electoral entity. Unlike in 2008 or even in Sarawak 2011, this campaign was a Pakatan opposition campaign. The opposition went into the polls together, rather than meeting for the first time after the results or at the seat negotiation table. On the ground and in the ceramah there was more open cooperation among the three parties. While much more can be done to forge stronger relationships and while ideological differences persist, the common bonds were stronger as Malaysia was given the option to choose a viable national...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com The GE13 results are in and the BN has managed to hold on to power, winning by a 22-seat majority. This result is the worst performance for BN in Malaysia’s history. For the first time, the incumbent government has lost the popular vote nationally (in 2008, it was only in the peninsula). The BN coalition has still managed to hold on to power. This piece, in a series analysing the election results, looks at the concerns raised regarding the electoral process and the potential impact these issues may have had on the final results. In analysing the fairness of any polls, one asks whether the irregularities in the process could have affected the final outcome. Were the problems enough to change which coalition would have formed government? These issues will be debated and assessed in the days and weeks ahead. Let me share some preliminary observations that suggest that in this election, some things appear not to be quite right. Integrity of electoral roll This was the longest wait for an election, and both sides were extremely active in registering new voters, especially in the urban areas where the party machinery was well honed. Even factoring in...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com On this historic day of GE13, Malaysians are bravely stepping into the unknown. Some are already queuing up to vote, and yet others are waiting for the crowd to disperse before heading out to the polling stations. Every Malaysian knows today will not be an ordinary day. There are four intense but quiet battles taking place that will shape whether May 5 will indeed bring about change. The first battle is a personal one, national in scope, taking place deep in the hearts of every Malaysian. It is a contest over what sort of country Malaysia should be. Many Malaysians are voting for a different moral foundation for the country’s politics. The anger and sense of disbelief of BN governance runs deep, from the issues of corruption to its racial polemics. While there are many Malaysians who strongly support the status quo, among this group are many who question whether something is not quite right. Indeed, today the country will be voting for its soul. At issue are dignity, respect, and perceptions of a shared national community. The questions being asked are: What role should principles play in politics? How should government treat its citizens? And, importantly,...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com In these final days before polling in the May 5 general election, more and more attention is focused on a third decisive group (besides civil servants and women) – young Malaysians, especially voters under the age of 30. This cohort comprises 2.6 million or 19.5 percent of the electorate, and are distributed over the entire country. They are particularly featured in BN rallies, often bused to locations, sometimes paid to wear blue T-shirts. They are the energy in the electoral campaign for both sides, riding motorbikes adorned with flags and cheering with great enthusiasm. They will ultimately be decisive in the election results. While most of the attention on Malaysia’s voting behaviour is on ethnicity, as this is the strongest indicator of voting behaviour, there are also important generational divides in the electorate. Generally, polling shows those aged 55 and above favour BN. Between the ages of 40 and 55 is a hotly contested age cohort, as the battle for the middle-aged voters intensified. Traditionally, this age group has also leaned toward BN, but has since been more divided. However, those between 30 and 40 favours the opposition, due in part to the reformasi and tsunami periods...

Taken from Al Jazeera Malaysia will head to the polls on May 5 for arguably the most competitive election in the country’s history. The choice is stark: voters must choose between Barisan Nasional, an incumbent coalition that has been in power longer than any other coalition in the world, and Pakatan Rakyat – a more youthful opposition that has experience governing at the state level but still faces an upward climb to build trust. The contest will fill 222 parliamentary seats in 12 states. (The 13th state, Sarawak, held its state polls in 2011.) The overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats will be close fights, with the balance of power in more than half of the states up for grabs. This underscores the reality that the incumbent coalition is facing the most serious challenge to its position in history. But serious questions have been raised about the legitimacy of the electoral process: the veracity of the electoral roll, the mass use of vote buying, and the fact that thousands of early voters have been non-transparently registered in different constituencies. Since 2009, the government has spent an estimated 57.7bn ringgit ($18.68bn) on election-related incentives, which comes out to about $1,400 per voter - the most...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com Less than one week before Malaysians cast their vote in what is arguably the most competitive election in history, the campaign has taken a worrying turn. In what has been part of a no-holds-barred strategy, the use of fear and division has come to the fore, especially on the part of the BN. It is thus important to highlight some of the underlying forces that are being mobilised in this fierce contest and shed light on the political and economic interests that support them. Indeed, this election is bringing to the surface many of the challenges of transforming a political system that has fed on insecurity. Stoking emotions over religion  With regular reports of the hudud and ‘kalimah’ (Allah) issues supposedly dividing the opposition featuring prominently in the mainstream press, and older stalwarts in the opposition being provoked to react often by a swarm of mainstream media journalists peppering questions to misquote and take out of context, the aim is to show that the opposition cannot govern while simultaneously stoking fears of religious marginalisation across communities. PAS is continually painted as the harbinger of the dark ages, cutting off hands and wiping out non-Muslim freedoms. While the...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com Apart from civil servants, another decisive group in GE13 are women. They comprise 51.7 percent of the electorate and regularly turn out in high numbers, especially in semi and rural areas. In close races, how women vote can make the difference. Numerically, women are largely in the urban areas, but disproportionately they are more influential politically in the more rural areas, as men are often outstation for employment. Let’s take a look at how women can shape and have shaped the election so far, recognising that they will make an important impact this election and the trends are moving against the BN. Traditionally, women disproportionately support the incumbent government more than men in the range of 5-8 percent. The BN gender advantage varies by ethnicity; it is more pronounced among Malays, Indians and East Malaysians, although almost non-existent among Chinese. The gap also varies by class, as it is most pronounced among women in the lower classes. The reasons for this gender gap are multiple, but four factors stand out. First, traditionally the Umno campaign has had the strongest women’s branch, Wanita Umno, and this group has played a major role in winning support. It has been the...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com In caretaker Premier Najib Abdul Razak’s political targeting, one group has received special attention – civil servants. Why would those in the heart of government garner such special focus for an election? The reality is that in Malaysia’s close electoral races, civil servants can be decisive in shaping the final tallies. This is one of the groups that I will be highlighting as decisive in this campaign. Over the past few years Najib’s administration has worked to stem the erosion of support from his traditional base of government employees with mixed results. A decisive constituency Civil servants make up 1.4 million voters, or 10.5 percent of the electorate. The civil service is made up of senior appointments, the police, army personnel, teachers, and a variety of industrial and manual (IMG) groups. There are also an estimated 657,000 government pensioners. Civil servants disproportionately comprise large shares of votes in key seats such as Putrajaya or Setiu in Trengganu, among others. Postal votes from the army and police have furthermore been decisive in shaping outcomes in many seats like Sibu and Kluang. Conservatively, we can see the numerical effect of civil servants in at least 20 percent of the...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com The billion ringgit question of this campaign is how much is being spent in the 2013 general election campaign and who is paying for it? Throughout the country, voters are already reporting early efforts to woo the electorate such as special grocery vouchers of RM300 in Sandakan and handouts of RM50 to attend a Umno meeting in Tanjong Malim, among many others. The promise of more goodies on the way is being repeated over and over, from the symbolic extension and increase of BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia) to more general ‘assistance’. The use of electoral incentives is well-known and honed, but there is a fundamental shift in the overall pattern this time round. Scholars such as Universiti Sains Malaysia emeritus professor Francis Loh have described the electioneering pattern as from one of patronage to ‘developmentalism’, where voters have moved from relying on everyday personal ties and relations with politicians to the promise of development projects. In this election, a new pattern of commercialisation has emerged, where the ‘You help me, I help you’ and ‘Let’s make a deal’ mantras are framing the campaign in what is crassly an economic exchange. The base money flows, materialism and expensive brand marketing...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com As 1,900 candidates poured into nomination centres around the country yesterday to file their papers, the excitement for the May 5 general election has intensified. For the first time in history, every seat is being contested. One seat, Kalabakan in Sabah, even has a seven-cornered fight. The mass entry of candidates into politics speaks of Malaysia’s heightened political involvement, with more and more Malaysians wanting to be part of the action. However, this at the same time points to underlying challenges facing political parties across the spectrum in managing the egos and interests involved. The nominations show that many would like to enter the fray, despite the potential damage this would cause for either side. Let me highlight a few issues arising from the nomination results, focusing on independents, multi-cornered fights and warlords. (Mis)managing Independents The most striking factor is the increase of independents from 115 in 2008 to a whopping 270. This nearly three-fold increase points to some underlying shifts in national politics. Based on the published list of independents, 39.2 percent of the parliamentary seats and 35.8 percent of the state seats have an independent or smaller party from outside of the two coalitions running....

Taken from Malaysiakini.com In assessing any electoral campaign, it is essential to review the assumptions and implications of different strategic moves. Three decisions on the part of BN in the last two weeks are leading to tectonic shifts within the electorate, and thus strengthen the opposition’s position nationally. These are: 1. The use of sex videos against PAS and possibly other opposition politicians. 2. The fielding of Perkasa leader Zulkifli Noordin in Shah Alam. 3. The action by the Registrar of Societies (ROS) in not recognising DAP’s central executive committee (CEC). The combined effect of these moves have strengthened the opposition coalition and negatively impact the BN’s position with the electorate in the lead up to the May 5 general election. Let’s take each of these in turn: 1. Smut videos Since 1999, the use of sex has become the mode of attack by BN. The list includes PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, MCA president Chua Soi Lek, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali, and more recently, PAS secretary-general Mustafa Ali, among others. Sex videos have also played a role in the Umno polls, including against caretaker Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak (left) himself. The aim is to use character...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com As the political parties wrangle over the final slate of candidates, the issue of who will contest and where has become more important than ever. The reason is simple: the candidate factor matters in close races. Each side is hoping that their list will bring that extra something to the campaign, to capture the imagination of the electorate and bring home victory. The selection process is rife with difficulties, as indicated by the slew of stories over the past few days of branch protests, minor parties crying foul, early announcements to offset challenges, leaking of ‘inside’ information and repeated delays in letting the public know who will be contesting where. This problem is especially acute in Sabah, where the campaign is essentially on hold until the seats are announced. The jockeying for seats is a normal part of the electoral process. What makes this candidate selection process different in this election is the fact that much of this is being played out in public – on both sides – and the decisions will matter more than ever. While candidate selection process is arguably one of the most important and difficult decisions in the campaign, the impact of...

Taken from Malaysiakini.com Well, the dates have finally been set and Malaysia heads towards the most competitive electoral contest in the nation’s history. It is important to step back and look at how and why GE13 is competitive. The broad reason is clear: this election offers the possibility of an electoral transition of power. More power is in the hands of ordinary Malaysians than ever before. The underlying dynamics that might make this change happen however, are more obscure. This article – as part of a special series of pieces on the polls – maps the contest nationally and draws attention to fundamental shifts that are making the May polls historic, whatever the outcome. The grey seats The fierceness of the contest is evident in the numbers of seats that are “grey” – seats that can go either way. Looking at a combination of factors in individual seats, the patterns of margin of victory and history of vote swing, the changing number and composition of voters, the candidate choices and infighting as well as macro national and state shifts in voting behaviour drawn from my fieldwork, I currently estimate that 42 percent of the parliamentary seats nationally are ‘grey’. The...

It is rainy and chilly in January 2013 in Hanoi, but the spirit of sunshine continues to live on. To bring in the New Year of 2013 we made a donation to Thuy’s Dream in the memory of Hoa. While...

When the votes were counted in this seat of 31,600 voters, the incumbent PAP had experienced an embarrassing loss – the opposition Workers’ Party took the seat decisively with a 10.8 percent margin, winning 54.5 percent of the electorate. This was a whopping 13 percent increase in its share of support from the 2011 general election. This is now the second by-election in two years where the dominant PAP has experienced difficulties at the polls, and the overall trend is one of erosion of support that is gaining momentum. The Punggol East by-election – in a seat where the PAP had the advantages of incumbency and resources at its disposal – is perhaps the clearest sign that the party is in trouble. Not only is Singapore moving toward a more pluralistic political system, the ruling party is losing ground electorally, particularly among younger Singaporeans. To understand the results, it is important to appreciate both local dynamics of the contest as well as broader shifts that are taking place in South-East Asia, including Malaysia. One-party-dominant regimes are struggling in maintaining their political position as their political bases contract and the strategies they are adopting, tied to old practices of politics, are...

In gorgeous sunny weather, across the bumpy roads and the Irrawaddy River, I visited the Malot village track this November. The purpose of the trip was to deliver the funds to build a new ceiling for the school, support minor...