29 Jun Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections are double trouble for Anwar

Brief
The 2026 state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan will be a critical test of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership, exposing the strength of his governing coalition amid growing voter dissatisfaction, internal party and coalition divisions and persistent challenge of an Islamist opposition. The polls will reveal whether the federal Madani coalition and its component parties can sustain support ahead of Malaysia’s next general election. While the Johor election will indicate whether the Barisan Nasional coalition can convert a strong state governance record into broader political momentum, the more politically fragmented Negeri Sembilan election will serve as a referendum on Anwar’s governance and his government’s ability to maintain cooperation across coalitions. The outcomes will shape alliance-building ahead of the next general election and could accelerate political realignment across Malaysia.

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Two southern Malaysian multi-ethnic states — Johor and Negeri Sembilan — are set to hold elections in quick succession. Held on 11 July and 1 August 2026 respectively, these elections could undercut Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s tenure if his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition experiences losses. After over three years in office during which the government has maintained political stability and strengthened economic performance, the coming polls will test Anwar’s Madani federal government — a coalition of coalitions of PH, the once-dominant Barisan Nasional (BN) and Borneo partners.

Usually, state elections are bellwethers of government support. The coming polls go further as a test of electoral strength of various parties in Malaysia’s complex political landscape. They are the first to pit PH coalition partners in the federal Madani government in competition in Peninsular Malaysia. Already, Madani coalition allies have gone on the attack against each other to shore up support among their core voters.

The Chinese-dominant Democratic Action Party in the PH coalition and the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) that dominates BN have distanced themselves from each other in their state electoral campaigns, aiming to offset the delegitimation each has suffered from working together in the federal government. This has heightened ethnic mobilisation in a country where racial politics is deeply rooted.

The Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls will also assess the effect of a major split in Anwar’s own People’s Justice Party (PKR). Born of discontent over bitter party polls held in 2025, former economy minister Rafizi Ramli and former environmental minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad resigned from Anwar’s government in May 2025 and now lead their own party, Bersama, aiming to become the new champion of reform. Acrimonious party divisions have impacted PKR’s base. While Anwar’s party only holds a handful of seats in the coming polls, Bersama poses a risk to PH support.

Challenge will also come from the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, dominated by the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS). While this coalition is going into the campaign openly divided among its partners, their electoral gains since 2022 and ability to tap into conservative religious sentiments among the Malay majority, foster ethnic polarisation and capture disgruntlement over rising prices make PN a force to be reckoned with.

Malaysia’s political coalitions are hoping that the 3.6 million voters across both states will provide greater clarity on support levels and electorally viable alliances before the next general election, which must be held before early 2028.

The founding state of UMNO, Johor, is a test of BN strength. In 2022, BN won an outright majority, reversing the 2018 loss. In the 2026 state election, BN aims to rejuvenate and retain its political base, with its campaign centred around the strong-performing Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi. Onn represents a new generation of BN leaders, known for his diligence and technocratic focus. Under Onn’s leadership, Johor has secured record levels of investment, reaching 110 billion Malaysian ringgit (US$25.7 billion) in 2025. A victory in Johor is a critical step for BN in its ambitions to return to control of federal power.

In contrast to Johor, who will secure a majority in Negri Sembilan is less clear. While PKR Chief Minister Aminuddin Harun has worked hard to transform the state’s economy over two terms, he has come under criticism for his reserved governance and faced challenges balancing the demands of local elites. His mismanagement of the 2026 Negri Sembilan constitutional crisis was a catalyst for the state government collapse, as the BN withdrew their support.

Of the two polls, Negeri Sembilan is more of a test for Anwar’s PH coalition and his Madani government. A loss for PH in Negeri Sembilan will increase pressure for Anwar to call an early general election and create further fissures towards political realignment.

Voting preferences are also more ambiguous. A third of the electorate is under 30, with nearly half of these voters undecided. Core party support is no longer as strong. BN has faced serious political erosion since losing power in 2018. Traditional PH supporters are wary of Anwar’s poor record of institutional reform and inclusive governance. Many focus on a gap between expectations and delivery. Anwar is hoping that his populist policies supporting subsidies and social assistance will offset any disappointment.

Voters are also grappling with how to respond to the more prominent role of royals in these campaigns. Divisions among the royal elite in Negeri Sembilan contributed to the state government’s collapse in April 2026, while in Johor, greater royal activism is shaping the campaign, with a royal family member having called for a larger share of Johor’s state tax revenue in a challenge to the federal government. This was followed by a dropped UMNO representative alleging royal interference in candidate selection, a claim dismissed by party leaders.

Among voters, there is a tension between upholding the voting practices of the past, tied to traditional party loyalties, ethnic identity and hopes for reform, with the more pragmatic considerations of the present. Given recent experiences of post-election alliance formation in Malaysian politics, voters cannot be confident that the government they vote for will be the government they get. Voters are increasingly dissatisfied with all the options on offer.

The results of these elections will shape Malaysia’s political trajectory. From the survival of Anwar’s Madani government and future leadership to the strength of contenders vying for power, these polls could bring double trouble, impacting political stability and distracting attention from governance. Johor and Negeri Sembilan are the first two of four state elections expected to be held this year, with the others being Malacca and Sarawak. The question will be whether an early general election will be added to the list.

First published on East Asia Forum.