The 1st was former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was not born into the aristocracy, or a prominent religious or political family.
Mahathir’s legacy in changing Umno was profound, not least of which is alleged corruption, centralisation of power and use of emotive racialised divide-and-rule politics that both split the party and the country.
He left the party weakened, as he killed off capable leaders to prioritise political loyalty. Umno moved from being a party governing the nation to one serving its leader and his favoured devotees. An Umno world of entitlement was created, where those entering were to be enriched.
Zahid comes from this Umno world. And like Mahathir, he is hungry for power without the legitimacy of being part of Malay traditional society. He has similarly prioritised loyalty, not merit. The uneven calibre of leadership in the party supreme council and desire to politically kill off skilled administrators such as former Johor menteri besar Hasni Mohammad speak to a corrosive pattern in ensuring political control, no matter what the consequences.
New Blood in Umno?
Along with displacement, however, there is replacement, with a new generation assuming leadership positions.
A total of 54 out of the 187 or 29% of elected division chiefs are new faces. Many have taken over positions but are of the old mould in that they have the same outlook and goals and a focus on personal interests.
Yet, there are also a handful of capable ones joining the other handful of capable ones that have survived the purge, those who see and even live in other worlds.
The party’s just-elected youth leadership offers insights.
Umno’s new Youth chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh was deeply popular when he was elected in Merlimau, in Melaka’s 2021 state polls. Known locally for his public service, he has risen in the ranks of a party that is starved for talent.
He hitched his ride to the national leadership to gain the youth post, but stands out in that his standing comes from his local community and respect as a doctor.
Umno’s new Puteri chief Nurul Aman Mohd Fauzi won despite not being part of Zahid’s camp, a testimony to her ability to garner support among women. There is a recognition that women are being side-lined in the party, but she has been an active organiser and fighter.
Her prominence nationally comes from controversy over her remarks in an “amok case” in Penang in 2019, of which she was later cleared. Whether and what she learned from that experience has yet to emerge. But the fact that she was elected against the Zahid tide speaks to her tenacity.
A Displaced Party?
New godfathers, and displacement or replacement, aside, the most important shifts are not those taking place within Umno. Rather, they involve Umno’s role in national politics.
Some will look at Zahid’s victory in the party polls as a victory for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, shoring up support for his government. Another view is that strengthening Zahid weakens Umno’s electoral chances, as it did in the 15th general election (GE15), and further polarises national politics.
Zahid’s poor record in GE15 is well-known and he faces an uphill task in the coming 6 state polls.
Umno only won an estimated 32% of the Malay vote nationally and was decimated in 5 of the states where elections are to be held. In Kedah, Selangor and Kelantan, particularly, the party only won an estimated 21%, 23% and 37% of the Malay vote respectively.
These are record lows in Umno’s electoral performance.
And losing an estimated 11% of the Malay vote in GE15 in Peninsular Malaysia as a whole on the back of repeated losses in 2013 and 2018 does not bode well for the party.
Indeed, if trends continue, Umno could be wiped out as a national party, and become reliant on winning seats in only a few states.
More to the point, it faces serious displacement in the Malay heartland, with Perikatan Nasional (PN) already touting that the party has lost its legitimacy to represent the community.
The Golkar Path
Clearly Umno has moved into a new role in national politics under Zahid. Essentially, this means the party is no longer poised to return to the No.1 position.
Umno is also not following the paths of previous dominant parties that returned to national power, be it the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan or Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
In fact, the path on the Umno horizon appears to be that of Golkar, Indonesia’s once-dominant party that has been now relegated to a secondary player, with pockets of regional support.
Golkar lost its nationwide relevance after the 1999 election as those socialised in the privileged Golkar world were sidelined by others hungry for power, a society wanting new dynamic leadership and democratic pressures calling on parties and party leaders to deliver, and adapt to a new context. Golkar leader Jusuf Kalla held the vice president’s position twice from 2004-2009 and again from 2014-2019 but the party has languished and contracted.
Needless to say, the party’s heyday is now long behind it, as corruption, leadership splits and a failure to reform itself eroded support for this once political giant.
Golkar has become a party for its few elites rather than for its traditional mass base of the New Order. Today’s Indonesian leaders are coming from elsewhere, be it more populist parties such as President Joko Widodo’s Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP) or even new parties emerging out of Indonesia’s more competitive political environment, and demanding electorate.
Malaysia’s Umno has missed (many) opportunities to change. The 2022 party polls had no mention of reform, or even resetting. The polls were even less democratic due to the stamping out of internal dissent.
The stomping that took place was in defending positions.
It is the 71% of older faces at the divisional level, locked in place, that keeps the party fixed in the past. Their concern with the spoils from positions has bred a culture that has resisted adapting to Malaysia’s changing society. There is a growing disconnect between Zahid’s leadership of Umno and the expectations of a changing electorate.
Umno is now No.2. Whether the Umno faithful and voters will accept a secondary position is too early to assess.
Umno has only itself to blame for moving itself towards less relevance. Its myopic focus has been on protecting the Umno world, even as the world around the party changes.
Sadly, the Umno polls did little to change the challenges the party faces and arguably made said challenges harder to address; Zahid has recreated his own Umno world.
The election shows that Umno is in survivor mode. Yet even with the new faces, a handful of promising capable leaders and a pause in internal party conflict, the pattern after the 2022 polls remains one of survival of a party less fit.
First published on Between the Lines.