28 Jan Umno’s Friday night purge
Last night, Umno decided to sack 44 members of its party, suspend four members for six years and displace yet other leaders from party positions.
These decisions, taken without a disciplinary process to allow members to defend themselves, include senior leaders currently and previously holding some of the most senior positions in the party, from vice-president and supreme council to youth chief, ministers and chief ministers.
The names are familiar – Hishammuddin Hussein, Khairy Jamaluddin, Noh Omar, Hasni Mohammad – all leaders loyal to the party but critical of its current leadership.
This is a purge that removes leadership challenges to Umno’s current leaders, particularly to party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy, Mohamad Hasan.
Last night, Umno decided to sack 44 members of its party, suspend four members for six years and displace yet other leaders from party positions.
These decisions, taken without a disciplinary process to allow members to defend themselves, include senior leaders currently and previously holding some of the most senior positions in the party, from vice-president and supreme council to youth chief, ministers and chief ministers.
The names are familiar – Hishammuddin Hussein, Khairy Jamaluddin, Noh Omar, Hasni Mohammad – all leaders loyal to the party but critical of its current leadership.
This is a purge that removes leadership challenges to Umno’s current leaders, particularly to party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy, Mohamad Hasan.
Counterproductive move
In fact, cutting off limbs from the party only weakens it further. Umno’s leadership has showcased insecurity – first in not allowing an election contest and second, in the purge. Deep insecurity.
Umno’s own history – 1969, 1987, 1997, 2016 – has repeatedly shown that purges lead to further splits in the party and have the potential to strengthen challengers. The divisions – and the causes for these divisions – are not going away.
Zahid – now with his core around him – has reinforced his “bully” image, one that contributed to losses in the 15th general election (GE15) and sets the context for the upcoming state polls which should happen in the next six months. This leadership style does not win over disenchanted grassroots or voters.
Umno’s leaders fail to fully appreciate that there are fewer supporters on their playground and these tactics appear to replicate a playpen.
Ironically, Zahid has made his challengers stronger. With access to media and public sympathy, those displaced have (modestly) gained both stature and sympathy.
In terms of history, out of the nine prime ministers of Malaysia, five of these spent time out of favour of Umno leadership. Sacking and suspending senior leaders in Umno more often than not strengthens them, especially if it is done in a way that is seen as unjust – as is the case for most of those impacted by the purge.
Where to next? New obstacles
The displaced leaders in the party will likely challenge these decisions in multiple ways; through the Register of Societies, through the media and potentially via elections. State polls are not that far away.
Some may leave Umno and join other parties, while others may sit and plot. There are many inside Umno that still oppose the leadership. Umno’s history shows that purges lead to further purges and exodus.
And the party’s conflicts are not going away any time soon. They have been pushed further into the party organisation – a structure that is deeply fragmented and weakened.
Elections within Umno and state polls provide arenas for the ongoing conflict to be played out.
A pattern of rallying the party against its “enemies” usually follows; a tactic that is difficult to implement when the current leadership is in a frenemy government with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. It is hard to bring people together when leadership is the main divider.
The current context makes for different dynamics than the past. There are limits to defection by those elected, constrained by the anti-hopping law. (Sacked can move, suspended are locked in unless they risk the option of a by-election).
There is now a stronger option to defect to, Perikatan Nasional (PN), but without the promise of similar leadership positions and with the cost of reinforcing the “betrayer of Umno” image.
PN will become the target of Umno’s current leadership, a dynamic that will ironically make it stronger and more appealing to those dissatisfied with Umno’s leadership.
For those displaced, moving to other parties inside the less-than-unity government will place tension on Anwar’s coalition. The path ahead for those purged has many obstacles.
Broader implications
There are a few broader implications that the fortunes of individuals and Umno’s internal dynamics may bring.
First, a weaker Umno creates conditions for a stronger PN, especially PAS. Harapan is now burdened with a weaker ally, one that potentially will not bring them the additional support they were hoping for, especially among Malay voters.
Second, the continued decline of Umno also brings with it an even more precipitous decline of BN. In the past few years, this coalition has shrunk from 14 parties to four. The dissatisfaction among the BN coalition members with Umno’s current leadership is real, as is the discomfort of being unwanted step-parties in Anwar’s frenemy government.
Third, the fortunes of Umno in the current state elections are being affected, not in the party’s favour. Zahid has stamped his “bully” brand on the party. This undercuts the ability of Umno and its allies to strengthen its appeal and rebuild its ties with the grassroots.
And it will also impact the Anwar administration’s ability to maintain support in the state polls, especially in Negri Sembilan and Selangor.
Of voters, the most impacted are the youths and potential young supporters. Younger voters see Umno as a party in crisis with its leadership making the crisis worse. They also see two of its most prominent younger leaders targeted by the purge -Khairy and Shahril Hamdan Suffian. It is not a good look.
Finally, in the dynamics of reactions triggering other reactions, those looking to “heal” the party, many of the delegates who opted to allow the current leadership to go uncontested in the hopes that there would be greater unity at the recent AGM, will look to other leaders to bring the party together.
The search for the “saviour” of Umno has gained more momentum. Some look back to former Umno president Najib Abdul Razak, others to Mohamad Hasan (whom Zahid made sure to include as part of the purging exercise), others to Ismail Sabri Yaakob (not purged as yet) and other leaders in the wings.
The decisions yesterday had ironically made the attention to alternative Umno leadership even stronger.
Umno’s recent purge follows patterns of the past – a party leadership focused on itself, unwilling to resolve its conflict through a democratic process, and, ultimately, unwilling to reform.
Its problems are “solved” by dishing out punishments – those that return to punish the party at the polls and hurt its national image. The damage is self-inflicted, with the scars deep and wounds open.
Umno’s leadership has yet to realise that the era of “strongman” leadership is over; these tactics showcase weakness.
Rather than clear the path for Umno to forge ahead, the purge serves to reinforce how damaged the party and its leadership are.
First published on Malaysiakini.com.